The peanut market is very quiet.  Shellers have inventory to sell for balance of 2022 but remain firm with little interest to sell, especially 2022 crop.  Markets for raw product remain in the mid 50's.  There is a standstill in contracting for the 2022 crop as farmers are bullish with cotton and corn at levels that will compete with peanuts for acres and $475 for FS tons is not interesting much to farmers.  Contracts have ranged from $500 per ton on limited tonnage on runners to $600 per ton for Virginias and even higher for Valencias and Spanish in the Southwest.

Both sides are content to wait and buyers are just watching with good coverage for balance of 2022 in the books.  And those that wanted to book some 2023 calendar year did so earlier this year when offers were available, but most thought that was too risky..

Uncertainty has been the buzz word these past few months. Uncertainty over new crop peanut acres has been influenced by the corn market’s slow and steady climb, but also a converse argument about increased input costs (input costs for peanuts being lower) and it has escalated more recently with cotton and soybean futures rising along with diesel costs soaring. 

Adding to the uncertainty, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has only fueled rising commodity markets and rising input costs to growers. It has also led to rising sun oil prices and uncertainty over South American peanut exports to those two countries.      

Uncertainty has led to an unwillingness from growers to contract farmer stock, a lack of buying interest at levels that support what most think it would take to buy peanuts from a grower, and therefore a market where most shellers are not able to or willing to market peanuts for 2023 calendar (and to some extent on current crop).

Next factors to watch are plantings beginning in the second half of April and weather through the Summer as predictions of La Nina to reach the East coast by the end of June.  The country is in drought from California through Texas to date.  With the Ukraine/Russia war and the crop plantings of wheat and sunflowers there at risk, the prices of various food commodities have skyrocketed.  The demand for vegetable oils worldwide and the crimp in supply for sunflower and soy oils, other oils including peanut oil have gone higher with no relief in sight. 

Both Argentina and Brazil are harvesting their peanut crops and Argentina experienced 2-4 nights of frost in early April.  Going forward, with much higher land rents and competing crops due to vegetable oil demand, both countries will be hard pressed to even plant a similar peanut acreage for new crop.

Toss in the normal uncertainty in the peanut market regarding future interest from China in US peanuts, a dash of doubt over where Argentina and Brazil may go with their crop if they can’t export to Russia and/or the Ukraine and stir in the unknowns about weather and crop quality.  With all the unknowns, uncertainty increases.

With the 2022 crop being one of, if not the best ever in terms of quality, it is easy to see why sellers would want to hold on to unsold goods until new crop gets planted and its development is better known.

It is difficult to get offers on new crop for 2023, particularly from the VC and SW, but SE offers are not easy to come by either. Again given the uncertainty on what shellers may have to pay to contract 2022 farmer stock and the shelled good market not aligning with prices that support the levels it would take to contract, we are in a wait and see mode.

The USDA prospective planting shows a decline of 0.9 % for the 2022 crop. Growers intend to plant 1.57 million acres in 2022, down 1 percent from 2021.  In Georgia, the largest peanut producing state, expected planted area is down 3 percent from 2021.  If it is applied a 4000 lbs average and take a 2.5% decline for planted vs. harvested, U.S. will end up with a projected production of 3.063 million lbs. This is plenty of peanuts with the low demand unless China returns.

 Another part of the puzzle is the PRICE LOSS COVERAGE Payment in October. As the average price of peanuts increases, that means less of a PLC payment. In March, USDA estimated a $51 payment, which would apply to 85% of the farm peanut base.  That is not much help, but every little bit helps.

 The U.S. Peanut Federation continues to meet with Farm Bill planners with hopes to continue the peanut program.  Leaders are concerned that working with present Washington leaders could all change in the November elections and the Farm Bill negotiations would have to be repeated. 

 With all the uncertain issues, including a food shortage, it is a good time to buy a few extra jars of peanut butter. 


2021 Est. Production (+4%)                          3,194,650 tons

2022 Est. Peanut Acreage (99%)                 1,571,000 acres`

2021 Crop Loan (Total)                                   2,568,453 tons

2021 Crop In-Loan(Remaining (4- 27-22) 1,168,806 tons

2021-2022 Domestic Usage  (7  Mo.)           UP 0.4 %

2021-2022 Exports (2 Mo)                            DOWN 118.25%

Posted Price (4-12-2022) Runners -$424.89 ton, Spanish - $413.05 ton, Valencia and Virginias - $427.70