The unknowns in agriculture have cast a cloud of doubt over plans a farmer makes for the next season.  As planting time arrives, the unknowns turn into surprises.  Costs have increased as he or she orders fertilizer, chemicals and gypsum, repairs on old equipment will be required as new purchases will have to wait.  Market prices for most commodities are at or below the cost of production.  Meanwhile, foreign markets and domestic down are showing a significant decline in volume.  Although President Trump promises to protect “His farmers”, the impact of tariffs on all commodities is another unknown.  As comedian Jerry Clower said, “Just shoot up in here, we got to have some relief.”
            USDA report was not at all a huge surprise, however, seeing nearly 1 million acres expected.                                                                                                                                          Unfortunately for growers  there is no commodity  that can be planted profitably.  Cotton continues to trade in the high $0.60’s for December ’25 so the fact that cotton acres are projected down 12% is in line with industry expectations. With corn under $5.00 a bushel, it’s easy to see why peanuts are the pick of the litter. Unfortunately for all involved, it’s not a very attractive litter.

            New crop kernel prices are being indicated in the mid-$0.50’s for SE runners and $0.70-71 for SE blanched jumbo runners. Buyers have taken on some coverage for 2026 and knowing that we are about to plant a big crop are very content to sit back and wait and see what happens at planting and during the growing season before layering in additional tons.

             In addition to this expected increase in US acres, Argentina and Brazil increased acres and have begun to harvest their crop. Argentina should have a good crop for the second consecutive year, however, an earlyi season frost will delay maturity and cause some quality issues that could open the door for U.S. sales.

            Growing conditions (weather) will be the market maker once again this year. Overall average US yields have decreased each year since 2021 and it’s probably no longer realistic to assume 2 ton/acre yields will be realized. Rotations have been shortened and many growers are simply in survival mode. How this impacts growers ability to apply proper inputs to the crop remains to be seen. If the weather does cooperate there will be gracious plenty of peanuts to go around come harvest.

            A group of dedicated rural Congressional leaders pleaded that farmers were having trouble and passed the ECAP program. ECAP will use up to $10 billion to issue 1-time economic assistance payments to eligible producers of eligible commodities for the 2024 crop year. These payments are intended to help farmers cope with losses from natural disasters and a difficult farm economy, and will help preserve family farms and ranches across the country while also continuing to ensure food and agricultural security for our nation. For peanuts, the program paid $75.51 per acre on planted 2024 acres.

              There’s lots of speculation about how many acres will be planted in peanuts for the 2025 growing season and to what effect that will have on both the current and new crop markets. In short, we have adequate supply, but not a burdensome carry-out come August.  Growers intend to plant 1.95 million acres in 2025, up 8 percent from 2024. In Georgia, the largest peanut-producing State, planted area is expected to be up 12 percent from last year to 950,000 acres.

              A 1,950,000 acres crop averaging 3,881 per acres (5 yr average), production total would be 3,784,000 tons.  Market demand has domestic at 1,550,000 tons and exports total 600,000 tons, that’s 2,150,000 leaving a ending stocks of 1,634,000 tons, enough to fill the domestic market next year.

               Raw peanuts in primary products are down 2.1% in Aug-February compared the same seven months of 2023.  Peanut butter usage dropped 6.3% pushing the 7 month volume down 2.5%.   Peanut candy usage is DOWN 9.4% for the seven months after a 20% decline in February vs last year. Peanuts in snacks are up 0.2% Feb. vs Feb. and now up 4.0% for the 7 months. 

              Contracts are for runner-type peanuts opened for $500 per ton in the Southeast.  The contract is limited to l/2 of the farmer’s production in 2024.  Shellers are reportedly matching the offer if the farmer is ready to sign.  Most farmers need contracts to secure financing for the new season.  Buying points reported good response.  In the VC region, irrigated Virginias were $605 per ton with non-irrigated at $580 per ton.  High Oleic runners were as high as $550 per ton. 

              The President has announced a range of tariffs (from 10% to 50%) on all countries and all goods.   Those countries targeted with tariffs higher than 10%, for example 20% for the European Union and 24% for Japan, are being delayed until July 9 to allow negotiations to occur between the United States and individual countries. Predicting export volumes is impossible with all the unknowns, USDA predicts decline of 18%.  USDA is increasing promotion funds for the peanut industry to hopefully expand the export demand.

              With all the unknowns, a suggestion is to negotiate your best price with your local buying point.  Plant about the same as last year, stay with your rotation plan, look for chemical and fertilizer deals, pray for a Farm Bill this year and pray for rain. 

 LEADING MARKETING INDICATORS (As of April 12, 2025)

2025 Est. Peanut Acreage (+8%)                    1,950,000 acres

2024 Est. Peanut Production (+9.6%) 3,224,040 tons

2024 Est. Average Yield                          3,668 lb/ac

2024-25 Market Loan                                     2,439,059 tons

2024-25 In Loan (4-2-25)                               1,562,186  tons

2024-25 Loan Redeemed -sold                           876,873 tons

2024 -25 Domestic Usage (7 Mo.)         DOWN – 2.1 %

2023-24 Exports (Aug-Dec) (6 Mo)                     DOWN – 15%