PEANUT SUPPLY & DISAPPEARANCE– Source:  Crop Production and Peanut Stocks and Processing, NASS, USDA, Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Commerce –5/14/ 2026 (OIL CROPS OUTLOOK) – Million pounds

                Divide by 2,000 to get exact farmer stock numbers.  2025/26 is Estimated, 2026/27 is a Forecast

PEANUT PROJECTIONS FROM USDA - In MY 2026/27, U.S. peanut production is projected to decline to 6.0 billion pounds on lower acreage and average yields. U.S. peanut farmers only intend to sow 1.7 million acres in MY 2026/27, as prices have been suppressed with limited demand growth resulting in ample carrying stocks.

             Peanut supplies in MY 2026/27 are forecast at a record with the higher carry-in stocks offsetting the lower production. With high supplies, peanut domestic food use is forecast to grow 2 percent from the previous year.

            In addition, the low prices are forecast to boost peanut exports to 1.4 billion pounds, up from 1.25 billion pounds in MY 2025/26.(12% Increase)   Peanut ending stocks for MY 2026/27 are forecasted to remain elevated at 2.6 billion pounds—as a result of projections for higher supplies, moderate food use growth, unchanged crush, and marginally higher exports. (1.3 million tons)

            With higher stocks, the peanut season-average farm price is forecast to continue to be lower than the prior 5-year average, at 24 cents per pound.  Average price received for peanuts for March was $.227 lb ($454 per ton) and April was $.226 lb.($452 per ton). 

COULD ACREAGE BE DOWN 20%?  (Broker reviews the market)

            Last month we were all hoping for rains in the US and dry weather in Argentina. Those hopes came true with good rains falling in the US and dry weather (although combined with cold temperatures) in Argentina. The US went from wondering if the crop on dry land would be planted to be 60% planted (just 5% behind the 5 year average).

            Since my last report, cotton prices rocketed to 87.43 cents, but that rally faded these past 10 days with prices now back down to 79.53 cents. That rally though pushed many US growers to switch from peanuts to cotton, hence the reason why I believe that plantings for the US 2026 crop will be reduced by 20% vs. the 14% estimated by the USDA. I also hear that there could be a good increase in cotton acres in India.

            Prices are now firmly at the elevated levels, no matter if one looks at the US, Argentina or Brazil. Elevated levels in the mind of the buyers, but accurate levels in the mind of the shellers. If one listens to the farmers and what they believe costs of production are, prices should actually be higher (especially with fertilizer prices and oil prices shooting up these past several months).

            The market has been lulled in this environment of low prices because of oversupply throughout the peanut world. But I believe that period has now changed, and we are back in the realm of costs of production, at least that’s what it feels like. Supply/Demand, crop sizes/quality and demand will continue bringing movement to the market prices, but I believe for the short and medium term prices have more upside than downside.

            I can’t write this report without mentioning the risks that crops around the world face this year with the super El Nino. Hopefully it will be a non-event, we will all be watching carefully the weather.

            I continue being concerned about peanut demand. US demand continues to be flat to weak despite the high inflation environment we are in. We have yet to understand why consumers are not buying more peanut butter in this environment. Historically we have always seen an increase in peanut butter demand when inflation went up.

            Where are consumers getting their protein intake from? GLP-1’s, now available in a pill form, are certainly a reason for the lower buying, but by how much? Is it the stigma of peanut allergy? Is it a problem of the misunderstanding of consumers about fat in peanuts? These are only some of the questions I have, but there are many more. European demand is also being pressured with very little understanding as to why.

            Peanuts are healthier than most of the people think, and they are cheap. So, what is the problem? Messaging?  Promotions?

WILL WE FORFEIT PEANUTS THIS YEAR?  Broker discussion.

            The current crop market is at variable levels depending on cuts, quality, and delivery period. One would find anything between 52 to 57 cents for splits to jumbos.

            The biggest question is which sheller has what. And that question might need more tweaking with the forfeitures question. Many shellers probably had in mind to forfeit many of the peanuts  (even good quality ones) that were in their system. With the market reversal, many shellers are probably trying now to contract those tons. The question is at what price will they be able to buy those tons and when (lots depends on loan maturity). The next question will be the quality of the carryover.  I believe that, considering the market situation, whatever ends getting forfeited will be of poor quality as there are no reasons for shellers to forfeit tons at let us say us$ 375 to us$ 400.- when new crop is a US$ 500.- basis.

            The new crop market has very few shellers interested. Not because of prices, but mostly because shellers (that are not cooperatives) do not know how many tons they will be able to buy and, most importantly, at what prices they will buy those uncontracted tons. A good portion of the contracted tons are probably sold. I would peg the market at between 55 and 58 cents depending on cuts. And I do not believe that large volumes are available.

            Buyers on the other hand don’t seem excessively concern about the situation. On current crop, I believe that most customers are covered thus shrugging off any short term concerns. Especially considering that demand continues to be lackluster.

            For new crop, I believe that many manufacturers have good coverage at lower levels. For those manufacturers that are not covered or still need to cover, I guess it all depends what their views of the carryover are and its impact on price (that is if they are not worried about the weather). I don’t believe that shellers can be thinking to buy farmerstock below us$ 500.-. That’s basically what market prices are pricing. Good yields and good quality could bring those prices slightly down, but that’s a big if. And if the weather doesn’t cooperate, fasten your seat belts.

            I guess the only positive at this point is that cotton prices for December 27 are low. 

LEADING MARKETING INDICATORS(6-1-2026)

2025 Peanut Acreage (+8%)                  1,901,000 acres

2025. Peanut Production (3,767 #/ac)    3,390,000 tons

2025 Inspections (Jun 1, 2026)              3,555,438 tons

2025 Peanuts placed in loan (5-27-2026)   2,910,863tons

         Redeemed (sold) (5-27-2026))          1,370,986 tons

2025 -26 Domestic Usage  (7 Mo.)            DOWN -  3.9%

2025-25 Exports (Aug-Dec) (5 Mo)           DOWN -  16%