Peanut producers experienced an unusually rough start in getting the peanut crop in the ground.  In the Southeast, dry and relatively cool temperatures caused peanuts to emerge slowly.  One peanut expert confirmed that the lack of heat units early has the 2023 crop behind 7 to 10 days.  In Georgia, the early wet soils caused the seed to rot and not germinate properly.  One farmer was replanting over 1000 acres.  Seed vigor was cited as a major culprit.

    The peanut market has been trending higher as farm leaders preach that inflation and increased cost of production strongly urges producers to consider other crops and even isolated farms not planting any crop due to cost. There is definitely a disconnect between sheller’s  ideas and what a grower is willing to sign a contract for farmer stock at this time. Some are even willing to wait til harvest or during the growing season.  Corn and cotton prices showed no excitement..

     Producers argued that the 2.7 million ton crop of last year and the 18% plus increased cost of production merited a higher offer for the 2023 contracts.   Testimony from ag economist reported 2022 cost of production at approximately $668 per ton.  With acreage estimates up 7%+, shellers started offering $500 - $525 per ton for runner type peanuts, $525 per ton on High Oleic and $550-$575 per ton on Virginia type.  Some shellers offered a sheller pool with $500 per ton floor hoping for prices to increase later this season.   Prices were higher for Southwest varieties due to cost of production of irrigated peanuts.

     The market reports that there was a lot of new crop business done in late April/early May and shellers are comfortable.   Officials believe that what has been contracted has been sold and farmers, shellers and buyers seem content to watch and wait until planting is finished and the crop gets up.

     Markets are a tad firmer with good demand having been booked into new crop.  The thinking is that shellers are comfortable with a bigger crop as an increase in demand from Europe will continue due to an Argentine crop shortfall.  Buyer’s ideas remain in the low to mid $0.50’s making it very difficult for shellers to want to sell much.  Shelled prices for runners  for 22 crop is $.61- $.64 per pound.

      Buyer’s seem content that there is a big quality crop on the way and are content to wait at this point.  EU activity for current crop continues to come in as the Argentine crop issues have created a need for US peanuts. There are inquiries for US new crop from EU buyers, but shellers are reluctant to offer until acres are better understood and of course we won’t know quality for some time.

      The raw peanuts in primary products IS DOWN 2.5%    Peanut butter is also down 3.6% for the 9 months.  In-shells are on a roll, up 9.3% with peanuts usage in snacks down 12.5%.   

      For the past 3 months, US peanut exports are down 6.14 %.  Mexico is still the top buyer, up 9% as Canada drops only 1% compared to the same period last year.  China is the 3^rd largest buye, down 7.73 %.  Japan jumped up to #4 as the Netherlands is now #5.

      Assuming 96 percent of sown acreage is harvested, and yields improve by 5 percent to 4,230 pounds per acre, U.S. peanut production is forecast to rise to 6.3 billion pounds (3,150,000 tons) from 5.6 billion in 2022/23.

     After accounting for lower beginning stocks, supply is forecast to reach 8.6 billion pounds, 557 million higher than 2022/23. The U.S. average price received by farmers is projected slightly down from its expected 2022/23 value of $0.27 per pound ($540 per ton) to $0.265 per pound($530 per pound). Moreover, the export program is expected to benefit. The 2023/24 peanut export forecast is 200 million pounds higher than last year at 1.3 billion pounds (650,000 tons). 

     Markets will firm after the estimated planted acreage is released from USDA on June 30. Farmers are concerned about the lack of rain early and worry more about the Farm Bill.  Peanut leaders have presented new proposals and they all cost money, however the response is that there is no new money.  Some think that peanut producers will be lucky to keep what we have. 

NEWS ALERT - 2023 PEANUT ACREAGE ESTIMATE - Planted area is estimated at 1.58 million acres in 2023, up 9 percent from 2022. Area for harvest is estimated at 1.54 million acres in 2023, up 11 percent from last year. In Georgia, the largest peanut-producing State, planted area is up 11 percent from 2022. As of June 25, sixty-nine percent of the acreage was rated in good to excellent condition compared to fifty-nine percent at the same time last year.

LEADING MARKETING INDICATORS (As of June 28, 2023)

2023 Est. Peanut Acreage (+7%)                1,537,000 acres

2023 Est. Peanut Production (4,230 #/ac) 3,150,000 tons

2023 Market Loan 2022-2023                        2,294,257 tons

2022-23 In Loan (6-1-23)                                    942,072 tons

2022 -23 Domestic Usage (10 Mo.)               DOWN – 0.2 %

2023 Exports (Jan-Mar) (3 Mo)                      DOWN – 6.14%