GEORGIA FISCAL ECONOMIST PREDICTS SLOWDOWN, NOT RECESSION

                  At the UGA Ag Outlook Conference, Dr. Jeff Dorfman, professor of ag and applied economics, described trends that are shaping the new economy.  First, why are there so many jobs and people not working?  He said, they have money in the bank(35%), or spouse is employed (30%).  Some have care responsibilities at home either with parents or kids and finally, “Scared of the COVID!”

          Georgia is Number one in job openings, 8th the separation rates (quit or fired) and 4th for hiring rate. Georgia is ranks 8th in growth. Normal savings for a household is 7-8%, Georgians are up to 33%.  Georgians have 75 billion in SAVINGS!  Georgians have less credit       card debt. Family income is usually spent 30% for services (haircut,etc) and 70% for goods or stuff.  Personal expenditures are UP 16.8% for stuff and down 1% for services since the pandemic.  

          “WILL WE HAVE A RECESSION?”  Dr. Dorfman says “No! too much in savings, $75 B; and room on Credit Cards, but yes on economic slowdown.”

For farmers, he said “Diesel is up 35%, spot loads are up 41%, Fertilizer up 85 to 125%, and pallets up 32%.

For farmers, he said, “Farm debt is manageable and interest rate is low.  2022 is a survival year:  just hang on through these input costs for one more growing season and then look for improvement.”

AG FORECAST TALKS PEANUTS AND COTTON

                Amanda R. Smith Agricultural & Applied Economics | Extension Coordinator, Economist & Agribusiness Instructor reminded attendees at the  UGA Ag Forecast  that there is a slowdown in economic growth and inflation is being felt across the economy.

                She said it is evident that  supply chain disruptions are affecting imports and increasing cost of inputs   interest rates.  She predicted that the Federal Reserve plans to increase rates, and government support to farmers is expected to decline in 2022.

                Amanda R. Smith, described the peanut market as follows:  1) Quality of 2021 crop looks good, 2) Food use is strong, but has softened, 3) Exports are expected down, 4) Ending stocks are ample, 5) Acres: likely to be up and Season Average Prices: ~$440/ton (range $400 - $500) per ton.

                2022 INPUTS OUTLOOK THAT WILL IMPACT PEANUTS AND COTTON include 1)  Land values and cash rents are up (increased $10/ ac over last year.), interest rates will go up, diesel and fuels are up, and expected to decline in mid-2022($3 gal),  Ag chemicals will go UP 5-6%, fertilizers U (N: $1.10. P: $.70, K: $0.70), Labor up, some scarce, Seed prices will slightly increase and machinery & equipment costs are UP.

PEANUTS MORE WATER EFFICIENT THAN EVER

                    The National Peanut Board has allocated more than $38.5 million to production research projects including to improve water efficiency, technology and more.  Now, they have discovered data that shows the industry has improved water efficiency by nearly a third.  

                Newly released data reports reveals that 3.2 gallons of water is used to produce one ounce of shelled peanuts. Water usage for major tree nuts has also improved but remains higher than peanuts. Almonds use 28.7 gallons; pistachios use 23.6 gallons; and walnuts use 26.7 gallons of water to grow a one ounce serving.*

                Dr. Mesfin Mekonnen, assistant professor, Department of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering at the University of Alabama said, “The use of updated and state-level data, particularly yield data, has improved the estimates.”   NPB President and CEO Bob Parker noted, “Peanut farmers today are producing about 50% more peanuts with fewer inputs, including irrigation, than they were consistently 10 years ago.” 

                Peanut grower, NPB Arkansas board member and Research Committee Chair Greg Baltz said, “Peanut farmers have made significant investments in production research and this science has played a role in adoption of improved water use practices. We have an inherent desire for both economic and environmental security into the future.  Farmers are always looking to gain efficiencies in crop production.”

                Officials at the NPB emphasized, ‘As a legume, peanuts are nitrogen-fixing, which means they require less supplemental fertilizer and add beneficial nutrients to the soil for the next crop. In addition to using just 3.2 gallons of water to produce one ounce, peanuts are a zero-waste crop. From the roots to shells, every part is utilized throughout the planting, growing, harvesting and production process.’ 

REMINDERS ABOUT PEANUT SEED IN 2022

                Scott Monfort, Extension Peanut Agronomist  with University of  Georgia reminded growers at the Peanut Seed Seminar on “ What do I need In-Furrow”  He listed seed at 6-7 seed per ft of row on singles , and  seed at 6-8 seed per ft of row on twins.   Apply Thimet before May 10, others may be okay after May 10th and fungicide seed treatment + extra if needed plus inoculants.

                He answered the question. “What I Do Not Need In-Furrow?”  He listed fertilizer of any kind --- we are causing more seed loss – Research has shown 40% stand loss at greater than 1 gal/A – 1 gal and less has shown slowed emergence of 1-3 days.  He adds, “We will be conducting more research in this area this year.

                Another question was, “How to Ensure Good Stands?”  Monfort said,” Maintain your planters, Inoculants, insecticide, etc. , know fertility and pH.  Start weed free and good seed bed, plant when conditions are good including soil moisture and soil temp – 68 degrees for 3 days, and do chase moisture.

                In summary, Scott said that seed quality is good this year, good practice to know % germ, take care of seed; 1st In = 1st Out. He said, “Make sure to look in bag as you go and keep track of weather.”

CERTIFIED SEED ACRES DOWN IN GA

                 Billy Skaggs, Certified Program Manager for Georgia Crop Improvement Association reports at the Seed Seminar that GA certified acres decreased to 128K in 2021 as compared to 135K acres in 2020; inadequate isolation is most frequent issue leading to rejected acres; isolation of 4 rows or minimum of 10 feet is required for all classes of certified seed from other varieties.

                He noted that field inspections were completed in September; certified buying points were inspected in the fall, along with additional warehouse facilities;  GCIA staff are currently inspecting shelling and treating facilities.  

                A farmer may save enough seed to plant his or her own holdings but no seed may be sold without permission from the variety owner.  Georgia-18RU is a patented variety and seed may not be saved. Patent application has been filed on Georgia-20VHO.  Alabama has 27,154 acres certified, Florida has 4,377 acres.

AMERICAN PEANUT COUNCIL MAY MANAGE APRES 

             At a recent meeting of the American Peanut Council, the American Peanut Research and Education Society (APRES) was formally approved moving forward with a management agreement for American Peanut Council to manage the organization. The target date for the transition is April 1.   APRES officer Kim Cutchins and APC staff teams have been reviewing the month-by-month deliverables for APRES and Kim Cutchins will assist in the transition.

                Officials cautioned that APRES will maintain its current identify, branding and board/governance structure. This will provide a great opportunity to ensure cross-industry conversations about research priorities and challenges, including shared events and committees.

PEANUT INDUSTRY LAUNCHES ‘SUSTAINABLE’ CAMPAIGN

                 Sustainable U.S. Peanuts is the overarching name for the American peanut industry’s sustainability efforts.  The American Peanut Council will coordinate the campaign.

                APC officials said,The first major initiative to launch under that umbrella is a grower platform developed in conjunction with the National Cotton Council. The platform is based upon the Cotton Trust Protocol template, already well known within the grower community.

                Aggregated data from platform participants will be released in future years. In the meantime, general messages about peanut sustainability, such as water use reduction over the past 10 years, or how much GHG has been reduced by the industry (per the Field to Market Index Report), will be messaged under Sustainable U.S. Peanuts.  

              Officials said,” The platform is ready for enrollments, and we are already signing up growers! Donald Chase from Georgia was the first grower to enroll.”

AMERICAN PEANUT COUNCIL HIRES ERIC CORONEL TO DIRECT PEANUT SUSTAINABILITY WORK -

               The American Peanut Council (APC) has named Eric Coronel the trade association’s first-ever sustainability director. Coronel’s first project will be to launch a nationwide framework for collecting and analyzing grower data to tell U.S. peanut’s sustainability story – and that’s just for starters, says APC President & CEO Richard Owen.

                “Today’s society demands that food is sustainably produced. At the same time, U.S. peanut growers must be able to make a sustainable living,” said APC’s Owen. “Eric has the skillset and experience the peanut industry needs to document our sustainability story, to drive our own sustainable future.”  Coronel is based in Tifton, Georgia. 

                As a senior research analyst with Field to Market: The Alliance for Sustainable Agriculture, Coronel oversaw the massive data collection and analysis that yields the alliance’s National Indicators Report. These reports, produced every five years, assess year-to-year progress of 11 U.S. commodity crops against indicators of environmental sustainability, including soil conservation, water use, and greenhouse gas emissions.

                Coronel’s first project for APC will be to work directly with U.S. peanut growers, to gather data from them to document peanut’s sustainability story that can be aggregated and shared with customers and consumers here and abroad. In return, growers can apply what they learn from the sustainability platform to drive their own farm improvements and profitability. APC will also produce tools to help the peanut supply chain communicate about peanut sustainability with their customers and stakeholders.

                Owen stressed that the grower data collection and reporting initiative is a significant industry-wide initiative and will be APC’s first foray into sustainability, but not its last on the U.S. peanut industry’s behalf.

                                For example, he noted that international buyers of U.S. peanuts are increasingly imposing sustainability requirements, so U.S. suppliers must be able to compete with suppliers from countries with their own sustainability initiatives.  APC also plans to explore pathways for peanut producers to participate in carbon and other ecosystem services trading marketplaces.

                “Sustainability isn’t just a factor in capturing market share, it’s also a business opportunity for growers,” said Owen.

 ALABAMA/FLORIDA PEANUT TRADE SHOW BIG SUCCESS

                Officials report that about 400 farmers and 60 exhibitors were featured at the Annual Alabama-Florida Peanut Trade Show this year.  The show is sponsored by the Alabama Peanut Producers Association, Florida Peanut Producers Association, and the National Peanut Board.

                Bob Parker, President and CEO of the National Peanut Board (NPB), brought greetings from the NPB and updated growers on how their check-off dollars are being spent on the national level. Dr. Marshall Lamb, with the National Peanut Research Lab, provided an update on the 2022 peanut market and crop outlook. Bob Redding, of The Redding Firm, presented a legislative update as well. Dr. Darlene Cowart with Birdsong Peanuts gave an encouraging talk on the value of food safety from the peanut field to the shelling facility. 

The Grand Door Prize donated by Kelley Manufacturing Co. was presented to Chad Wells of Gordon, Alabama. Wells received a $5,000 voucher for any one piece of KMC equipment or parts for KMC equipment. James Harrell of Rehobeth, Alabama, won a free trip to the Southern Peanut Growers Conference in July. Thomas Kirkland of Headland, Alabama, won a Remington 12-gauge shotgun.

REMINDERS ABOUT PEANUT SEED IN 2022

                Scott Monfort, Extension Peanut Agronomist  with University of  Georgia reminded growers at the Peanut Seed Seminar on “ What do I need In-Furrow”  He listed seed at 6-7 seed per ft of row on singles , and  seed at 6-8 seed per ft of row on twins.   Apply Thimet before May 10, others may be okay after May 10th and fungicide seed treatment + extra if needed plus inoculants.

                He answered the question. “What I Do Not Need In-Furrow?”  He listed fertilizer of any kind --- we are causing more seed loss – Research has shown 40% stand loss at greater than 1 gal/A – 1 gal and less has shown slowed emergence of 1-3 days.  He adds, “We will be conducting more research in this area this year.

                Another question was, “How to Ensure Good Stands?”  Monfort said,” Maintain your planters, Inoculants, insecticide, etc. , know fertility and pH.  Start weed free and good seed bed, plant when conditions are good including soil moisture and soil temp – 68 degrees for 3 days, and do chase moisture.

  In summary, Scott said that seed quality is good this year, good practice to know % germ, take care of seed; 1st In = 1st Out. He said, “Make sure to look in bag as you go and keep track of weather.”

NOMINATION ELECTIONS FOR NATIONAL PEANUT BOARD

                    The Arkansas Peanut Growers’ Association, Missouri Peanut Producers’ Association and Oklahoma Peanut Commission are seeking eligible peanut producers who are interested in serving on the National Peanut Board. Nomination election meetings will be held to select two nominees each for member and alternate from each state to serve on the National Peanut Board. All eligible producers are encouraged to participate. Eligible producers are those who are engaged in the production and sale of peanuts and who own or share the ownership and risk of loss of the crop.

                    USDA requires two nominees from each state for each position of member and alternate. The National Peanut Board will submit each state’s slate of nominees to the U.S. Secretary of Agriculture, who makes the appointments.

                Arkansas Peanut Growers’ Association  - Annual Arkansas Peanut Growers’ Association meeting on Feb. 24, 2022, at 6:00 P.M. at Foodbank of NE Arkansas, 3414 One Place, Jonesboro, AR 72404.

                Missouri Peanut Producers Association - The date and location of this meeting are to be determined.

                Oklahoma Peanut Commission - Mar. 24, 2022, at the end of the Oklahoma Peanut Expo, at 2:30 P.M., at the Business Enterprise Center at Southwestern Oklahoma State University, 1121 N 7th Street, Weatherford, OK 73096