A new peanut year generally rings in fresh optimism as farmers look ahead to a new planting season. Yet, as 2021 was coming to an end, despite strong commodity prices, growers are having increasing concerns about the future.  Makes a coach feel like he has a GREAT TEAM, but don’t know which play to call.

                The peanut market is considered, “QUIET!”   The U.S. peanut market is well supplied following the 3.2 million tons of 2021 crop production and the approximately 1 million tons carryout from the 2021 marketing year. 

                Buyers have no urgency – they seem to think acres will be flat to up and don’t seem to factor in that cotton is $1.10 per lb., corn is $6 per bushel and soybeans as high as $15 per bushel.  Most analysts predict peanuts will lose dry land acres to these higher priced crops.  Soybeans offer the best return on paper but aren’t a great option for peanut growers and their rotations.

                 At the same time, analysts predict that the high cost of fertilizer will drive farmers to planting more peanuts.    Peanuts require little fertilizer except calcium.  However, in the Southwest, some farmers do apply fertilizer to peanuts in certain areas. 

                Domestic markets have slowed and U.S. peanut exports have softened over the last 12 months due to non-tariff trade barriers to Europe and little to no crushing stock for export due to the back-to-back high quality, low aflatoxin, U.S. peanut crops.


                Planted area was estimated at 1.59 million acres, down 5 percent from 2020. Harvested area was estimated at 1.55 million acres, down 4 percent from 2020.  The yields are 323 pounds per acre higher in 2021/22 than 2020/21 at 4,135 pounds per acre. This upward revision more than offsets the 70,000-acre decline in harvested acreage.  An economist predicted that a 5% increase in U.S. acres would increase the Carry Forward to 1.287 million tons, a 10% increase would increase the carry forward to 1.440 million tons.


                  In the Southeast, certified acres decreased to 128K in 2021 as compared to 135K acres in 2020; inadequate isolation is most frequent issue leading to rejected acres.  There could be a shortage on some minor varieties; suggest securing seed early if possible. State seed lab suggest significantly less Aspergillus as compared to last year. The quality is good to very good on most lots with germination in the 80’s & 90’s.


                2022 Farmer Stock Contracts opened with $500 per ton , plus $25 per ton premium on seed and/or High Oleic(HO).  In the VC region, Virginia contracts were offered $500/$520 per ton, + $25 per ton for irrigated, Runners -$475 per ton + $25 for HO/irrigation.     

                  Limited tonnage is being offered to producers $500 per ton for low oleic for l/2 tonnage produced and delivered in 2021.  Or l/2 production tonnage contract $525 per ton for high oleic.  If the producer wants tonnage above this level, the contract is $475 per ton on low oleic and $500 per ton for high oleic.  The total tonnage is also limited to each producer’s 3-year average per acre.

                  Production costs estimate by extension and others average about $545.97 per ton…after the new increased input costs, total cash flow cost it $666.94 per ton.


                    Peanut usage is UP 0.3% (5 Mo) for raw peanuts in primary products with peanut butter showing a decline during the period of 1.1%, however December showed a 7.7% increase.

                    Peanuts in candy continue their surge, up 13.4% for the 5 months and up 24.6% during December. Peanut usage in snacks is down 4.2% and in-shells down 3.8%.

Government purchased another round for Nutrition Programs of PB & In-shells, 4.47 million pounds of peanut butter and 77.8 thousand pounds of roasted peanuts during December. 

                    Despite lower beginning stocks and imports, the anticipated 8.5-billion-pound peanut supply is 75 million pounds above the 2020/21 supply due to higher yields. Deflated from last year, 2021/22 exports are down 8 percent to 1.3 billion pounds, suggesting a decrease of 3.2 percent in total peanut use on unchanged crush (875 million pounds).

                     Domestic food use, the largest category of consumption, is expected to rise marginally and reach 3.39 billion pounds. With higher supplies and declining peanut use, ending stocks are expected to increase to 2.25 billion pounds (1,125,000 tons) after settling at 1.97 billion pounds in the previous year. Over the past 2 years Domestic peanut consumption is up +6.8%, peanut butter +7.9%, snack peanuts +8.1%, and peanut candy +13.7%

EXPORT MARKETS: The first 4 months of the peanut marketing year (Aug-Nov 4 months) is disappointing, down 24.3% from last year.  In-shell peanuts are taking a hit, down 55.1% as China reduced purchases of in-shells 70% indicating that the U.S. is low in oil stock.  The pandemic appears to impact peanut butter exports, up 22.2% with Canada and Mexico top buyers. Raw shelled peanut shipments are down 18.7%, but improved. 

                Increased global production (+5.4% last 2 years) coupled with decreased export interest from China(-60% YOY JAN-NOV21 ) have slowed U.S. peanut exports vs. MY 19/20’s record setting total.

                    The Argentina Crop 2022 is growing well, the weather has been really hot during the first half of January.  Officials said Argentina never had really a severe drought, only had some stress during 15/20 days of January with low rains and extreme temperatures. Overall the crop looks average so far. Acreage 380,000 hectares harvested (USDA). Drought in Brazil and Argentina is a concern to the market.          


                    All the talk in Washington is that the Farm Bill must be ‘climate smart’ that reduces greenhouse emissions and protects the soil.  The peanut program is the perfect commodity with a federal program that has worked effectively.  In the peanut world, there is no waste, it is conservation savvy for the soil.  The U.S. Peanut Federation is working almost daily on issues and making contacts supporting the peanut program.  Farmers need to support the PAC managed by the Federation to make certain ag committee members meet with the united peanut industry and other commodities.                   


2021 Est. Production(+4%)                          3,194,650 tons

2021 Est. Peanut Acreage –(5.1%)             1,533,000 acres`

2021 Crop Loan (Total)                                   2,531,830 tons

2020 Crop In-Loan(Remaining (2-4-21)   2,207,785 tons

2020-2021 Domestic Usage (5Mo.)           UP 0.3 %

2020-2021 Exports (4 Mo)                            DOWN -24.3%

Posted Price (2-4-2022) Runners -$424.89 ton, Spanish - $413.05 ton, Valencia and Virginias - $427.70