U.S. peanut production is now forecast this year to be 3,160,000 tons, a 3 percent increase.  Harvested acres are estimated at 1,560,000 acres, down 3.5 percent from last year.  Earlier estimates had acreage down 2 percent.  The U.S. average yield per acre is forecast to be 4,050 lbs per acre, a 6.6 percent increase over last year.

                  Market demand or disappearance totals 3,203,500 tons, a 1% increase.  Demand is 87,000 tons more than the supply.  Domestic food usage is forecast to be down .57%.  Crushing for oil is up 3% with exports remaining the same at 750,000 tons.  Even with all of the changes, ending stocks will remain about the same as last season, 1,025,500 tons. 

                 Farmers have to report planted acres by July 15.  The season kick-off has been difficult with Southeast experiencing cooler than normal temps and some storms leaving 7 or more inches in the Georgia belt.  The VC region is cold and wet with the Southwest still dry.  Peanut specialist warned producers to not get in a hurry, wait for soil temps to average 68 degrees for three consecutive says before planting. 

                With the higher commodity prices, shellers have been offering some premiums to encourage farmers to plant peanuts and stay on rotation.  With a base offer of $475 per ton for runners or $500 per ton for Virginia type, premiums included $25 for irrigated, $25 for High Oleic, $25 for seed production next season, and even some hauling bonuses.  Buying points and shellers need to beware of 2022 corn prices, some farmers are booking bushels at high prices.

                While the price farmers are receiving for peanuts increases, the monthly average price in USDA increases which will eventually reduce the Price Loss Coverage payment for next year.


                  Exports continue to run about 10% above last year as China continues to buy in-shells.  Domestic consumption is now up 3.6% after 9 months.   Market demand is estimated at 3,187,500 tons.  If producers average 4,050  lbs. per acre (estimated), U.S. production would be 3,160,000 tons. Supplies will be tight in 2021

                  U.S. peanut usage for April is UP 3.9% compared to April, 2020.  Categories show positive increases except In-shells, down 14.2%.  For the 9 month period, peanut usage is up 3.6% with peanuts in candy up 10%, peanut snacks up 4.9% and peanut butter maintaining volume, up 3.6%.   

                  For manufacturers, the market today is priced for a normal crop with prices next year at approximately $.53 for splits, $.54-$.55 for Mediums and $.56 for Jumbo runners, much higher for large kernel Virginias and for Spanish if you can find anything

                  Buyers seem to be taking a wait and see attitude towards upcoming plantings and need to bear close watch as if we get problematic dry weather this summer, prices will certainly go higher.  Shellers remaining stocks for current crop are limited and if one assumes about 80% of Farmer Stock has been contracted for new crop, we still have some negotiating to do at the buying point.


                  U.S. peanut exports for the calendar year 2020 totaled  910,101farmer stock tons valued at $759.6 million, up 20% by volume and 12% by value as compared to the previous year. This represents the second highest total in the history of the industry.  Value is down as lots of lower quality farmer stock shipped to China for oil production.

                  For the 7 months of the marketing year, China has purchased 131,903 MT of in-shells.  As a result, reports indicate that in-shell peanuts are in short supply.  China is also buying raw-shelled, ranking # 3.  Overall, raw shelled shipments are down 17.3%, peanut butter down 9.4%.  Total exports are up almost 10%.  The 25% tariff into the EU is a concern as sellers avoid that market until settled.     

                Argentina expects to lower exports 14%.   The weather has caused a delay in maturity.  Industry is hoping for sunshine and dry conditions to finish out the crop.  USDA estimates production of 909,997 MT of peanut kernels, 66,378 tons less than last season.


                The pandemic is slowing winding down, the peanut crop, of good quality, is being shipped to markets that are expanding and growing.  With new leadership in key positions in the industry and in the government, backed by an industry hungry to get back to business, this should be an exciting year. 

                Last year we predicted the virus would become the biggest threat to the global economy ever and the peanut industry would suffer major losses from lost markets including schools, restaurants, export shipments as production factories would have to shutdown.  Peanuts and other commodities were already suffering from low prices.  No doubt that the pandemic crippled the economy, but the peanut industry decided to fight back and lead consumers out of the maze.

                Following CDC guidelines when possible, shellers kept shelling and delivering raw shelled peanuts on time and ready for processing.  Manufacturers witnessed shelves becoming empty and adjusted production to replenish supplies quickly as the consumer and family were eating and working from home.  Over 60% of consumers bought groceries on line.  Peanut employees started a working at home job. Families rediscovered the flavor, nutrition, and convenience of peanut butter at home.  One reported that PB soothed the soul.  Over 1000 employees geared up for federal/state inspection of the crop with only one COVID incident. 

                The entire industry is to be congratulated as the industry growth continues with usage up 3.4% overall and the market leader in peanut butter reported a 7.1% increase during the pandemic.


2021 Est. Peanut Acreage (- 2%)                1,616,000 acres

2021 Avg. Yield per ACRE(Est)                     4,050 lb/ac

2021 Est. Production                                      3,160,000 tons

2020-2021 Domestic Usage (9Mo.)                   UP + 3.6 %

2020-2021 Exports (Aug –Feb)7 Mo.               UP + 9.5 %

Posted Price (6-1-2021) Runners -$424.55 ton, Spanish - $415.57 ton. Valencia and Virginias - $428.74