MARKET WATCH: April 15,2023

U.S.PEANUT MARKET AS 'STAGNANT’.

            THE US DOMESTIC CURRENT CROP MARKET CONTINUES TO BE VERY QUIET WITH

VERY LITTLE INTEREST FROM BUYERS.  MOST BUYERS ARE EXPECTING PRICES TO GO

LOWER WITH THE GOOD PROSPECT OF INCREASED PEANUT PLANTINGS DUE TO THE

LOW COTTON PRICES.

            FARMERS AND SHELLERS ARE UNWILLING TO NEGOTIATE ON FARMER STOCK

PEANUTS. MOST MANUFACTURERS SEEM VERY WELL COVERED THROUGH THE END OF

THE YEAR.  WITH NO BUYING FROM MANUFACTURERS, THERE IS NO URGENCY ON THE

SHELLER SIDE TO ISSUE A 2023 CONTRACT.

            HOW LONG WILL THIS SITUATION CONTINUE?

The stalemate will likely go on until manufacturers need to purchase some of the 2023

crop coverage. Manufacturers think producers are going to plant a lot more and prices will

drop.

            Chinese may still be interested for farmer stock, and not so much for kernels. China

needs peanuts for crushing to make peanut oil.

            However, the higher-priced U.S. peanuts most recently have caused China to look

elsewhere.  Good U.S. quality commands a price China isn’t willing to pay for crushing.

            EXPORTS ARE RELATIVELY STRONG WITH MEXICO AND CANADA AS THE MAJOR

BUYERS. FEW SELLERS AND EVEN FEWER BUYERS HAVE IN TRADING NEW 2023 CROP.

Contracting in all regions for 2023 crop farmer stock has not picked up.

            IN THE ABSENCE OF A CONTRACT, HOW MANY ACRES WILL ACTUALLY BE

PLANTED IS A DIFFICULT QUESTION TO ANSWER.     U.S. SHOULD GET MORE THAN A 6.7% INCREASE AS IT IS BELIEVED THAT ACRES

            IN TEXAS, GEORGIA AND ALABAMA WILL INCREASE. IN THE SOUTHEAST, IT SEEMS

THERE WERE MORE INTEREST THAN EXPECTED FOR CORN ON IRRIGATED LAND.

            STATE PEANUT SPECIALISTS HAVE ESTIMATED THE PEANUT ACREAGE FOR THE

2023 SEASON AND PREDICT AN INCREASE OF ABOUT 7.1% WITH ALL STATES THE SAME

OR INCREASING EXCEPT OKLAHOMA.

            A 6.7% increase after a 2.5% adjustment for harvested acres would result in a total

crop of 3.063 million fsst based on an average yields of 4000 lbs.

            PEANUTS and cotton acres are still in the air and prices for cotton in the next month

BUT WITHOUT ANY COMPETITION FOR ACRES FROM COTTON OR CORN, THE

INDUSTRY WILL LOOK FOR FEWER ACRES OF THOSE CROPS AND FOR MORE PEANUTS.

            PEANUT USE IS EXPECTED TO DECLINE BY 4% THIS MARKETING YEAR. THIS IS

PRIMARILY DUE TO A FORECASTED DECREASE IN EXPORTS could still affect plantings up or down.

OF 7%.

            FOOD USE, WHICH MAKES UP THE LARGEST PORTION OF PEANUT

DISAPPEARANCE, IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE ONLY 1%.  PEANUT CARRYOVER AT THE END OF THE MARKETING YEAR IS EXPECTED TO  DECREASE BY 8% TO 1.1 MILLION TONS.

            THE CODEX COMMITTEE ON CONTAMINANTS IN FOODS WILL AGAIN BE TAKING

UP A DISCUSSION ON A PROPOSED STANDARD FOR AFLATOXIN MAXIMUM LEVELS IN

READY-TO-EAT PEANUTS.